In eighteen months or so, baseball is going to need a new commissioner. Unlike the NBA, where David Stern is handing the job off to his longtime Deputy Commissioner, it's not at all clear who the baseball owners might be thinking of to succeed Selig.
I have heard various names thrown out there.
Bob Costas -- Would probably be very good for the game in the long run but has no chance of getting the job. The owners don't want a Commissioner who might tell them that some of Bud's revenue-maximizing schemes are actually not in the best interests of the game or the fans.
Joe Torre -- A name that's getting a lot of mentions. Is currently working in the MLB front office. Having seen the man Derek Jeter calls "Mr. Torre" up close and personal for many years as Yankee manager, I'm not that impressed with his potential to be a good Commissioner. But since one of the job requirements is not managing a bullpen, he's got that going for him.
Peter Gammons -- Ummm . . . no. Please God, no.
George W. Bush -- Was managing general partner of the Texas Rangers for five years. Might be interested in the job (expressed an interest before running for President). And he once fired Bobby Valentine . . . so that's a plus. The union will hate this choice, obviously.
Condoleeza Rice -- Purely in personal terms I'd like to see the first dominatrix Commissioner.
Bill Clinton -- The union would like him, he's a great talker, and generally a fun guy. He and A-Rod could cruise chicks during playoff games (although he'll have to find Hillary another gig that entails her traveling a lot).
Sandy Alderson -- Longtime baseball man. Did an amazing job bringing the umpires to heel (all his good work since undone, alas . . . thanks again, Bud). Might well want the job, too -- how much fun can being the GM of the Mets be right now?
There are others . . . mostly guys currently working in MLB in some capacity or other. I'm thinking the owners may go for a more corporate type -- in their eyes baseball is so much more about the business than about the game, and the union and player agents are relentlessly pulling in one direction. (That direction can be summed by the urban but eloquent "mo' money, mo' money!" - as in more of the owners' money) So the union is going to distrust whoever the new Commissioner is . . . the owners will be smart enough (I think) that if they do go for a corporate type, it won't be someone with a perceived history of union-busting.
The new Commissioner will have to navigate a tricky course, assuming his or her term lasts more than a couple of years. There will a contentious labor negotiation -- baseball's economic model may not be sustainable for a sport that is no longer "America's Pastime" in terms of popularity. There will be a new TV deal to be done at some point -- will ESPN and Fox keep paying the rates they're paying? The big market/small market dichotomy will get worse as big market teams pull back on spending, resulting in no more luxury tax revenues and a growing resentment of the revenue-sharing arrangement. There is the perception that the fans want more extensive/invasive PED testing, a move the union will have to resist. Small market teams will continue to agitate for a salary cap (although their appetite for a cap diminishes markedly when it's pointed out that a cap includes a salary minimum as well).
The qualitative aspects of the game need work, too. The umpires are back to their personal strike zones. I personally find the games generally less exciting lately -- even with the infusion of international talent, the game feels diluted. This may well have to do with the loss of black players in recent years (I recently read that the percentage of black MLB players is down to 8%). The new Commissioner needs to do a lot of work to re-popularize baseball in inner cities and among young people.
If the baseball owners are true to past form, they will choose a new CEO (let's call the job what it now is) with less regard for the thorny issues and more regard for who will best pepretuate the status quo, because they're making money, the stands are more or less full (at least in terms of tickets sold -- I see lots of empty seats on TV), there is labor peace and the gullible pubic believes Selig's nonsense about MLB having "the toughest drug policy in professional sports" (this is like saying that your hen house only has one fox in it).
The owners have eighteen months to pick someone. Since I don't think I'm getting that call, I look forward to watching the process unfold.
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